China Delhi Nightmare; The possibility of a full -fledged war between India and Pakistan is weak

Mehr News Agency, Group International – December Madvan: Transformations Recent In the Indian and Pakistani subcontinent, it has once again attracted the attention of the world. The two countries, which have a long history of tensions and conflicts, in years Recent With challenges New They have faced not only affecting their bilateral relationships, but can also affect the stability of the region and even beyond.

The Kashmir issue, which has always been one of the main points of dispute between India and Pakistan, has become a complex and multi -faceted crisis in the current situation. Alongside this, new geopolitical developments, including India's military and economic cooperation with the United States and its coincidence with internal tensions and terrorist attacks, have added to the dimensions of the crisis.

These conditions, leading to the formation of Questions About the future of Indian -Pakistan relations and the role of world powers such as China and the United States in this Equation Has been.

Mehr reporter in a conversation with Dr. “Damla Chaghla Bayram»Expert Turkish issues Indian political has examined the various aspects of these developments, including the unresolved reasons for the Kashmir issue, the impact of terrorist attacks on relations between the two countries, and the possible consequences of any military conflict.

The following is a detailed discussion:

Why is the Kashmir issue remain unresolved after years? Experts say the current situation may remain a managed crisis, but the intensification of disputes over water and Kashmir has increased the likelihood of a larger conflict. What do you think about this?

The unresolved reason for the Kashmir issue is that both sides claim ownership of the land and none of them are willing to retreat. In fact, the issue of Kashmir is like a chronic disease that stays in people's lives. When each party has facts on this issue, it does not seem to be a possible solution. As a result, the current situation is more likely to remain a controlled crisis. Currently, diplomatic conflicts and actions are taking place on a small scale, and tensions will not be more than that.

However, India may begin a targeted counterattack in response to terrorist attacks. The counterattack may be limited in the form of an air strike, similar to the steps taken after the Polvama attack in year 2. But these measures do not seem to be done quickly and are still in the planning process.

When the Kashmir issue is raised, the issue of document water is also used as a geopolitical weapon. This alone does not become a war crisis, but alongside the Kashmir issue, they are fueling each other. India is currently in a position to be superior to document waters, while Pakistan is in adverse conditions. The source of the document begins from Indian soil and is directed to Pakistan. India has made many dams over the years and has made its policies towards the water of the document, changes in the flow and direction of water that Pakistan will not be satisfied with. Therefore, the problem of water will expand over time and will probably remain unresolved and will be fueled as a parallel problem with Kashmir.

Despite two full -fledged wars in years 1 and 2 and smaller clashes such as Cargil, the Shimella Convention continued to be valid. But many people have little information about the details of the treaty. The fact is that there is no exemption clause in this agreement and this treaty can be amended. However, none of the parties have the right to change or stop this treaty alone. Therefore, the Indian government's decision to suspend the agreement is lacking in legal basis, because there is no form to allow any of the two countries to do so. If Pakistan referred to the International Court of Justice, India would have been proven.

The Shimla Agreement explicitly states that both countries will respect each other's security and integrity and resolve the issues peacefully. Of course, the issue of document waters does not only include India and Pakistan, but also China and Afghanistan. The tension between these countries is currently ongoing. India's use of document waters as a weapon against Pakistan gives China the ability to use Tibetan waters such as Brahmapotra and Mekong. Restricting water to another country can be seen as a war crime, and India can actually affect only a small portion of the water currently flowing into Pakistan. To do so, India must build large dams and make significant investments.

If India begins to create infrastructure to commit such war crimes, it will introduce itself as a negative character in the region. But it goes without saying that the Kashmir issue does not only include India and Pakistan, but also China, which means that there are some parts of the Kashmir where China is ruled. China, which calls for moderation on both sides, is more concerned about its partnership with Pakistan and the fate of the economic corridor project in these lands. The crisis between India and Pakistan will also be a major threat to this corridor.

Trump's deputy, at 1 April had an official trip to India. Are this terrorist attack and attack in Kashmir?

Yes, the US Vice President's visit to India and the terrorist attack in Kashmir occurred simultaneously, and this could be considered an important sign. At the time of the attack, both the US vice president and the Indian Prime Minister were conducting international activities. On the one hand, India was trying to strengthen its trade and defense cooperation with the United States, and on the other hand, sought to strengthen trade relations with Saudi Arabia, one of its key partners in the Persian Gulf.

The attack can be seen as an attempt to remind India that still exists destabilizing elements, a topic that foreign actors are developing relations with India. The terrorist attack was an intelligence failure for India. The country was aware of the group and made efforts to siege them, but it is difficult to integrate a game. What was surprising to me is that India did not predict that the presence of the US vice president in India could give them an opportunity to internationalize the Kashmir issue and eliminate the sense of normal status of Kashmir.

Both countries have a nuclear weapon and a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. India is also a member of the Brix Group, and Pakistan is seeking to join the group. On the other hand, it should be remembered that there is a great relationship between China and Pakistan. On the other hand, the relations between India and China are in parallel, especially with the Brix Group. The reason for India's military power is Russia. With these interpretations, can the war between the two countries affect the stability of Eurasia and the West Asian region?

Certainly the outbreak of war can affect Eurasia stability. But the important point is that in the current situation, India does not want war at all. India is an actor who has the experience of war with Pakistan and China and knows well that he should not go to war with Pakistan at the moment. Also, India is well aware that it should not be fully trusted by the United States and should not enter stress with China. The situation is a little different now.

China is currently investing in its partnership with Pakistan and improving its relations with Russia. If the war begins by India, China will not remain silent, and this is the nightmare of India. For this reason, New Delhi has done his calculations well. The US is expressing support for India, but India will never fully trust the United States and do not want to put itself in a position to depend on America.

Analysts believe that the war between Pakistan and India will benefit the United States because it hurts China, but I do not accept it. The war between the two countries certainly damages Pakistan and China, but it will weaken India and the US now needs a strong Indian. The main interests of the US here are maintaining regional stability and preventing any tension that can have wider geopolitical consequences. Let us not forget that China and India are repairing their relationships and that foreign actors are not ready for war in the current situation. Although China has declared its support for Pakistan, Europe and even Russia will not respond to that danger.

Finally, India wants to show that if a war begins, it will be Pakistan that will start the war, not India. India will take action that is not the same as the war and even its tensions can be controlled. In fact, this Indian position means controlling the exacerbation of conflict. In other words, India wants to prevent some kind of conflict, while also showing foreign powers that it is not at the moment.