Big Blackness in Announcing True Divorce Statistics; What is the origin of a great lie?

Mehr News Agency, Community Group; In recent years, one of the main issues that has been reflected in the community and has raised concerns about family status is the contradictory statistics of divorce. Some media outlets have increased divorce rates in different cities about marriage and even outsource divorce.

The news suggests that in the first seven months of the year, 2 out of 2,800 marriages have resulted in divorce, and comparing the two have resulted in a divorce of about 2 percent of marriages. This ratio has reached 5 % in Tehran, and has finally announced that divorces have increased than marriages.

However, there seems to have been a major computational mistake in statistics analysis, and it is likely to have been inadvertently manipulated by the lack of accurate or deliberate statistical information and in line with marriage and divorce statistics.

Error in conceptualism, factor in making a computational misconception

Alireza Lavor In an interview with Mehr reporter, a family expert and university lecturer, referring to the importance of the conceptual issue and the proper use of vocabulary, said: “In the public space we are faced with many phenomena that refer to different terms and words. For example, there was no phenomenon called white marriage in our religious or national literature. This word is translated from a Western word. It is thought that the English word is the concept of White Marriage, but the word used in Europe and America and in scientific content is cohabitation.

He also added that the word relationship in some cases is married. For example, a book on the non -failure relationship used in the title of Relationship is translated and published in Iran with the name of marriage without failure. In the word marriage, both the word marriage and the word white have a positive charge. It is as if the white person's birth certificate stays in this kind of correlation, so white marriage has occurred.

“The phrase we have in the treatment of psychological disorders Pedophilia This is a kind of deviation, but in Farsi, the phrase we have considered is “baby palate”. Does this phrase correct the concept of this deviation in the mind correctly?

How are marriage and divorce statistics calculated?

Describing the factor of error in the concept of phenomena and phrases referred to, he stated: In the subject of divorce there is the same error in conceptualization. We have a concept in this area called the abundance of marriage and divorce. For example a family; Powerful It consists of parents and three daughters under the age of 5, if examined for the abundance of marriage, it is stated that only one marriage has been recorded in the family for a period of six years. If the eldest daughter of this family marries at the age of five, there is a frequency of marriage in this family, marriage, and over the years, marriage in this family will reach 2 marriage and ultimately 2 marriages.

Lavor The next issue is that a few percent of this family; Powerful Are they single? 5 % of the population of the assumed family is single and this is not a high number. The raw rate of marriage in this family of dividing the number Single The total number of family population is obtained, that is, the number of people in the total number of sample community. When we divide the number of marriages in the country, we get the crude rate of marriage. For example, in the year we had 6,000 marriages, 6,000 divided by a population of 5 million, raw marriage rates this year.

The raw rate of marriage; Number of marriage relative to the total number of sample community

The family expert also said: Now in the same family; Powerful Assuming that 2 % was single, our statistics are not wrong and we are not mistaken in calculating, but these three single girls are under the age of 5, and basically the word single with its specific semantic burden is for these girls. If we use accurate concept and literature and look for a net marriage rate, the formula is calculated:

The net marriage rate; The number of marriage divided by exposed to marriage.

“Now with this formula, the net marriage rate in this family; Powerful Is not 2 %, Zero Is. Because none of these girls are married. When we do not make the net marriage rate and only calculate the abundance of marriage, there is a challenge.

Lavor Referring to the same thing happening about divorce, he said: If we divide the abundance of divorce per year into the population of the country, will this number create or not create the power of analysis for us? I mean the same family; Powerful The two girls under the age of 5 are also calculated in the country's population and are considered to be deducted to obtain a raw rate of divorce, while there is no divorce in this family and three children are not married and even under the age of marriage. So this is not accurate. We use the following formula to obtain a more precise divorce rate:

Net divorce rate; Number of divorces per year divided by divorced persons (ie to couples).

He emphasized that this number is very simple and analyzed and said: “Those who claim scientific words must work with a net rate to analyze in this area.” If we measure the ratio of divorce to the total number of population, which also includes single populations, we have a miscalculation.

One year marriages have nothing to do with the same year's divorces

The family psychologist and psychologist continued to point out another factor in this computational error and said: “In addition, when we talk about marriages in year 2, the marriages are registered in year 6. But divorces have absolutely nothing to do with marriages. That is, we have brought the fraction number from where the number is mixed. That is, someone has divorced in two divorces, or was 2 years old, or 2, and previously.

He added: “We have analytical statistics that do not have such an error and that our country in the field of divorce shows well.” For example, last year, 5.5 percent of a year's divorces occurred in marriages that are one year old. This statistic has the ability to analyze. About 2 percent of divorces occur in the first 5 years of marriage. There are factors, examinations and articles.

Lavor “But we are seeing this year's marriages divorce by this year's divorces and declare that divorce has surpassed the marriage,” he said. But it is not clear what basis of these two numbers Non -Non And they divide the relevance. It is as if we compare the power of one's vision with another hearing power, and then to say that the relation of vision to hearing has been relevant to me. While the two people's hearing is comparable.

In the end, he noted: Those who publish such statistics or Are ignorant And they speak of illiteracy and do not know accurate statistics or information or are specifically biased and are intended to divert public opinion.